Southwest Monsoon Set to Exit by Mid-October; What the Northeast Monsoon Means for Tamil Nadu and the South
Forecasters expect the southwest monsoon to leave the country around October 15. Its retreat opens the way for the October-December rains on which Tamil Nadu depends.
The southwest monsoon, which brings most of India's rain between June and September, is on its way out. By October 8, 2026 it had already withdrawn from northern, western and most of central India, and forecasters expect it to leave the rest of the country around mid-October. Its departure clears the way for the northeast monsoon, the season that matters most for Tamil Nadu and parts of the south.
As of October 12, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had not yet declared complete withdrawal. The dates below are forecasts and can change.
Where the withdrawal stands
According to Skymet Weather's update of October 8:
- the monsoon has withdrawn from north, west and most of central India;
- it was expected to leave the remaining southern and central parts within two to three days;
- it may linger over eastern and north-eastern India until around October 14;
- complete withdrawal from the country was expected around October 15.
IMD's extended-range outlook issued on October 1 had also indicated that conditions would become favourable for withdrawal from much of east, north-east and north peninsular India in the second week of October. Regional reports point the same way: in Jharkhand, withdrawal began on October 3, two days ahead of its usual date.
What is the northeast monsoon?
In winter the winds over the Bay of Bengal reverse direction and blow from the north-east. They bring rain to the south-eastern coast of the peninsula between October and December. This is the northeast monsoon, also called the retreating monsoon.
It matters most for:
- Tamil Nadu, which receives about 48% of its annual rainfall in October-December;
- coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema;
- south interior Karnataka;
- Kerala, which gets a second, smaller rainy season.
When does it start?
The normal onset date of the northeast monsoon, based on the long-term average, is around October 20. Skymet notes that the onset is not declared before October 10, even when conditions look favourable, and that it usually follows complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon closely.
What to watch
- Water supply: Chennai and much of Tamil Nadu depend on northeast monsoon rain to fill reservoirs and lakes for the following year.
- Cyclones: October to December is also a busy season for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, which can bring very heavy rain and strong winds to the east coast.
- Agriculture: The northeast monsoon supports the samba rice crop in Tamil Nadu and rabi sowing in parts of the south.
For official updates, follow IMD's bulletins and warnings for your district. If you are in Chennai, the city's new Phase II metro stretch has just opened, one more option on wet days.
Sources
This article draws on the following reporting. Dates are when each source was originally published.
- Skymet Weather: Northeast Monsoon Waits in the Wings: Onset Pending Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon ·
- Skymet Weather: Complete Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon Likely By Mid-Week Next
- India Meteorological Department: Extended range outlook (dated 01 October 2026) ·
- The Daily Pioneer: Monsoon Likely to Withdraw From Jharkhand in Four Days
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